Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275da5b3ebb5915d352664453438bb70ad78c83b39a4d953deb001d86fea3fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 330.59$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 307.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 38c | 265.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 261.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 234.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 234.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 45c | 227.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 185.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 54c | 181.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 45c | 148.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 143$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 124.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 120.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 115.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 114.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 112.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 75c | 108.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 105.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 91.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 52c | 91.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 77.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 70.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 61.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 53.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 52.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 52.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 48.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 54c | 42.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 51c | 41.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 38c | 38.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 47c | 37.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 32.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 32.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 48c | 28.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 50c | 27.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 56c | 22.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 51c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 51c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.