Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086c29bc6009a08def99dbfdc4e97b3c6865cf1eb6dcee29c3346ae96f646290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,223$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 700.45$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 477.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 472.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.66 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 341.9$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 249.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 53c | 236.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 34c | 217.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 171.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 166.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 165.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 149.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 64c | 143.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 14c | 137.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 136.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 129.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 121.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 119.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 110.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 108.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 99.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 91.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 26c | 91.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 51c | 80.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 77.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 34c | 69.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 27c | 69.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 56c | 68.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 66.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 58c | 59.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 46c | 58.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3476…8b53backed Yes | 45c | 57.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 51c | 56.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 54.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 55c | 47.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 52c | 44.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…4753backed Yes | 52c | 43.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 28c | 43.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…a4fabacked No | 58c | 43.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 55c | 42.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 40.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…ce1cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 37.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 34.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 27.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 60c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 25.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 23.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 23.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 54c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 20.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 14.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.