Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2799bf11cd09830c849abb3e97acfe4d8fdd680e6704206068c42285ffb9ff91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 0c | 20,414$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 13c | 978.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 373.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 77c | 253.7$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 250.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 80c | 240$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 9c | 218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 139.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 78c | 124.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 74c | 108.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 103.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed No | 16c | 103.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 21c | 96.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 89.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…0426backed Yes | 78c | 88.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 14c | 85.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 14c | 85.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 14c | 85.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 72.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 76c | 71.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 20c | 69.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 79c | 62.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 74c | 60.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 74c | 60.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 59.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 56.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked No | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 50.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 24c | 49.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 77c | 41.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 76c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 75c | 22.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 76c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 79c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 79c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 79c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 74c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 74c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.