WNBA · resolved market
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27bdfd729863ca5660da00d07b6f546c89e79533248f608d55490e55579cc70b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Under | 1c | 6,134$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 1c | 5,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.32 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 2,597$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.27 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…67c4backed Under | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,423$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.25 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 1,283$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…468dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 492.86$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 332.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 53c | 132.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 51c | 99.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 48c | 95.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Under | 51c | 70.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 52.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Over | 51c | 52.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 54c | 50.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Over | 50c | 49.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Under | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 50c | 25.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix MercuryMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.