WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea34dff9f9a4381238e9dff3225d5546eff0731466e79f5277e59c2e0a8541c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,994$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.22 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 1,932$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.13 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 1,696$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.51 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 1,072$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.51 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 63c | 932.14$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.14 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 15c | 916.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 819.84$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.93 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…1f2cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 591.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…a053backed Minnesota Lynx | 61c | 255.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 6c | 182.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Minnesota Lynx | 70c | 162.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 160.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 138.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 83.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 54.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 48.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 41.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 70c | 38.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…25e7backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 36.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…c0b8backed Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 33.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 27.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…7f43backed Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix MercuryMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.