WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99725e543a1564b2bbdb808916b52b893e70c134c7e029542b53f6c26311d6ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 11,088$5,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,433.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 8,602$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.48 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 7,423$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.83 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 6,764$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.28 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 6,300$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143.37 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 2,697$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.31 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…12c3backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 2,521$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 1,937$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.53 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,324$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 1,161$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.88 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 1,028$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 906.44$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.28 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 872$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.72 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 823.4$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.47 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 799.98$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 609.71$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.71 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 240.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 239.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 196.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Minnesota Lynx | 75c | 184$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…1f2cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 97.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 77.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 76.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 75.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 70.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…7d46backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…c430backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 29.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix MercuryMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.