Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27db95fdf139f6664e257b5a38ad410064b5828ef92a60d3f6bfe4a71ff2ed42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 60c | 815.8$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 75c | 756.23$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 448.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.66 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 373.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.94 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 42c | 349.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 258.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 247.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 199.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 199$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 37c | 195.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 191.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 184.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 79c | 182.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 174.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 161.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 149.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 146.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 135$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 128$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 118.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 42c | 103.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 97.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 95.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 35c | 94.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 94.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 82.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 78.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 72.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 71.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 65.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 51.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 50.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 42.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed No | 67c | 39.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 40c | 37.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 46c | 36.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 33.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 37c | 31.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…b050backed Yes | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 29.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 29.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 20.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…1ac2backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.