Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280410e063bd70ce4593c02face24bd5c260a22e47280869a981daf3f35631af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 1c | 43,271$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 6,477$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 2,715$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 1,804$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,632$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,547$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,445$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 3c | 1,404$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…2567backed Yes | 2c | 1,075$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…f844backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 833.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 4c | 763.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 5c | 699.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 2c | 692.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 685.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 3c | 666$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 13c | 634.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 3c | 568.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 2c | 492.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 491.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 482.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 11c | 451.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…78adbacked Yes | 5c | 399.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 4c | 377.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 5c | 374.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 321.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 313.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 6c | 313.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed Yes | 4c | 306.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 11c | 284.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 6c | 264.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 6c | 253.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 7c | 246.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 7c | 193.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 181.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…e7cbbacked Yes | 10c | 180.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 8c | 170.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 20c | 130.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 21c | 99.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 87.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 15c | 82.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 15c | 74.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 16c | 74.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Yes | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 80c | 63.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 63.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…851ebacked Yes | 19c | 51.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…d2a6backed Yes | 27c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 41.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 80c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.