Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71d5b3495fe96dd80c846bf171f1eb8e4fbc89f7cd781587b6831cbac9f8e0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 13c | 4,317$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.12 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 3,649$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,729$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,119$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 1,705$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…85f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,628$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 1,499$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 1,145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 1,054$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…5a31backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,012$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 5c | 921.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 655.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked No | 67c | 560.62$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 541.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 14c | 527.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 3c | 500.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…7302backed No | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 493.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 7c | 485.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 24c | 457.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 404.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 74c | 389.32$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 5c | 382.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 3c | 374.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 74c | 373$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 6c | 361.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 11c | 338.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 19c | 335.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 318.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed Yes | 6c | 316.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 308.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 5c | 306.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 6c | 306.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…e733backed Yes | 4c | 304.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 286.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 71c | 254.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 80c | 245.63$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…2696backed Yes | 39c | 241.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 214.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 5c | 213.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 31c | 212.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 23c | 200.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 70c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 199.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 69c | 177.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 175.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 35c | 155.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes | 30c | 153.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…f5d4backed Yes | 41c | 151.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 11c | 150.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 21c | 149.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 27c | 147.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 8c | 144.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 80c | 142.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 62c | 132.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…773fbacked No | 74c | 130.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…f245backed Yes | 36c | 128.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 76c | 121.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8048backed Yes | 28c | 120.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 32c | 118.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 9c | 117.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 11c | 109.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 16c | 106.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…9633backed No | 74c | 105.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 41c | 97.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 21c | 96.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…f8dcbacked Yes | 34c | 96.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 26c | 95.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 36c | 93.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 35c | 92.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 12c | 91.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 22c | 90.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 13c | 89.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 89.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 69c | 85.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 84.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 16c | 84.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 74c | 81.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 33c | 74.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 27c | 74.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 15c | 73.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 74c | 72.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 72.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed No | 72c | 71.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 69.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 74c | 66.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 67c | 60.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…1249backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…413dbacked Yes | 38c | 59.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.