Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2affc23f1011c1bf2154bbe4fa696cbce45fb1177634d22a1061dc17ad9e22c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 2c | 29,993$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 6,077$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 22c | 1,333$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 1,290$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 8c | 1,174$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 978.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 677.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 10c | 664.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 11c | 648.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 563.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 523.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 515.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 39c | 489.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 484.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 16c | 480$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 75c | 447.83$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 24c | 437.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 411.15$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 386.25$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 369.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 16c | 366.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 344.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 294.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 290.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 10c | 286$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 76c | 249.72$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 12c | 245.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 17c | 234.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 216.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 214.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 211.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 200.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 191.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 10c | 185.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 14c | 178.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed Yes | 13c | 169.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 77c | 168.82$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 158.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 154.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 150.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 141.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed Yes | 20c | 129.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 124.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 106.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…264fbacked No | 80c | 99.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 75c | 97.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…0826backed Yes | 14c | 93.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 21c | 92.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 20c | 85.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 83.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 17c | 80.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 26c | 75.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 70c | 71.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 65.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 20c | 60.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked No | 75c | 58.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 20c | 57.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 65c | 50.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…fd1cbacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 27c | 46.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Yes | 26c | 38.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 36c | 30.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 78c | 24.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 20.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed No | 80c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.