Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20df46efc6df6b705ed36fc9aa5928997033e47de4974323c6b94b43f7e50a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 1c | 45,781$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…d6e5backed Yes | 0c | 32,150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 1,723$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 1,319$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,290$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 1c | 950.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 16c | 770.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 766.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 24c | 644.3$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 26c | 482.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 451.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 450.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 79c | 411.72$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 383.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 383.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…587ebacked Yes | 65c | 370.72$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 22c | 368.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 53c | 356.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 336.42$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 335.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 25c | 330.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 73c | 309.83$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 58c | 308.61$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 34c | 300.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 270.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 58c | 268.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 44c | 258.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 78c | 251.31$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 34c | 234.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 228.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 37c | 228$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 29c | 208.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 203.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 194.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 184.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 42c | 180.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 74c | 168.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774b…37c3backed No | 79c | 167.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 150.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 148.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 76c | 146.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 142.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 139.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 40c | 139.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 20c | 133.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 29c | 132.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 130.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 50c | 126.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 119.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 33c | 116.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0449…55f8backed Yes | 34c | 110.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 35c | 106.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 31c | 104.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 22c | 99.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…1164backed Yes | 29c | 97.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 21c | 90.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 31c | 90.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 55c | 90.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 72c | 78.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 71c | 76.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 73.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked No | 62c | 72.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Yes | 35c | 71.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 35c | 69.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 69.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 67.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 67.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 74c | 67.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 58c | 66.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 65.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 65.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 65.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 64.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 61.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…f8dcbacked Yes | 51c | 59.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 20c | 59.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…c821backed No | 65c | 58.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 57.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 21c | 56.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 26c | 56.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed No | 54c | 52.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 50.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 50.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…382abacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…b07ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…a891backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…84c7backed Yes | 21c | 49.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 68c | 48.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.