Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873c1b32fa1f9033359112462d2e48eb173a2c06f2f6830e31d876d2c8a2808c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 1,523$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 2c | 1,372$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 16c | 1,213$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.71 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 1,089$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 5c | 936.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 861.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 664.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…9c79backed Yes | 75c | 565.25$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 551.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 511.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 454.69$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 360.28$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 338.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 20c | 337.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.14 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 62c | 292.16$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 277.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 17c | 246.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 227.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 32c | 214.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 78c | 212.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 196.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 195.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 5c | 192.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…5621backed No | 6c | 186.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 166.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 44c | 163.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes | 28c | 163.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 76c | 154.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 29c | 149.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…f245backed Yes | 29c | 146.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 138.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 131.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 129.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 29c | 128.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 119.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 32c | 116.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 26c | 116.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 16c | 112.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 112.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 32c | 111.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 14c | 107.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…debfbacked Yes | 35c | 107.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +128%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 69c | 106.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 35c | 105.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 68c | 105.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 104.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 18c | 102.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked No | 20c | 101.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 55c | 101.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +310%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 45c | 99.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 28c | 99.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 94.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 60c | 88.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 77c | 88.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 84.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 81.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 24c | 77.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 47c | 75.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…1164backed Yes | 74c | 74.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 21c | 72.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0449…55f8backed Yes | 26c | 72.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 28c | 72.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 71.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 70.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…4a42backed No | 65c | 68.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 75c | 67.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…c880backed Yes | 76c | 63.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 23c | 56.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…af44backed Yes | 46c | 55.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 78c | 55.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 49.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 75c | 48.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 47c | 47.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 45.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 78c | 45.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 44.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 42c | 44.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…74fdbacked Yes | 32c | 43.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 42.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fa…0b24backed Yes | 37c | 41.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 70c | 39.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.