South American Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282591c3b86cbb6fa32cd5f8e41925caa37befb57b8ffa93fe418070733f74d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 4,548$3,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 3,106$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 39c | 2,600$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 2,537$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 1,794$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.17 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,477$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 27c | 1,446$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 61c | 1,266$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.72 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 41c | 986.09$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.41 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 31c | 969.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 839.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 25c | 799.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 28c | 788$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 63c | 660.12$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 571$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.98 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 58c | 549$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Yes | 28c | 425.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 39c | 347.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 68c | 280.31$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 59c | 179.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 39c | 158.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 156.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 15c | 136.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 61c | 132.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 102.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…1c13backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 32c | 88.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed No | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 62c | 74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked No | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 62c | 72.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…494dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 60.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 42c | 55.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…1cefbacked Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…e93bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 63c | 36.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…d70abacked Yes | 40c | 25.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…853cbacked No | 60c | 24.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 76c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…dd62backed No | 66c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Club Santos Laguna vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.