Other European Leagues · resolved market
AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2855f50dd87189fb1630485a966f0729b66204e56f33b280ebae483b7cba0779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 19c | 18,696$3,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.26 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 16c | 3,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 72c | 1,630$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.66 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Under | 3c | 1,473$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…4418backed Under | 25c | 1,036$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 19c | 582.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 27c | 436.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 26c | 416.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 78c | 319.39$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 314.38$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 22c | 294.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 58c | 285.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 21c | 237.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 339 | 59%200 W · 139 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 20c | 217.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 75c | 153.57$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…11f3backed Over | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…6555backed Over | 58c | 101.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 27c | 97.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 58c | 93.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 28c | 93.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 305 | 50.8%155 W · 150 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 74c | 76.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Under | 29c | 60.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 43c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 187 | 40.1%75 W · 112 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 26c | 38.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 220 | 62.3%137 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 38c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…adc1backed Over | 72c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 42c | 24.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 57c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 57c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 99 | 68.7%68 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 59c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 2.5this page
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: AIK O/U 0.5Under won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 0.5Over won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 1.5Over won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 3.5Under won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 4.5Under won
- AIK vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AIK (-1.5)Orgryte IS won
- Spread: AIK (-2.5)Orgryte IS won
- Spread: Orgryte IS (-1.5)Orgryte IS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.