MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b19977715b9b5404efd97292ed15e212c7cf90fee94fada5d55dd98707b9ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Orioles, Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Angels | 43c | 3,630$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.88 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Orioles | 57c | 3,235$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.04 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Angels | 19c | 1,674$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles | 57c | 1,010$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.68 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Angels | 10c | 687.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Angels | 29c | 630.01$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Angels | 19c | 481.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Orioles | 57c | 342$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Angels | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 56c | 307.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Angels | 8c | 284.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Angels | 13c | 245.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Angels | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Angels | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Angels | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Orioles | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Angels | 42c | 191.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…42cbbacked Angels | 15c | 189.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 56c | 186.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Orioles | 75c | 134.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Orioles | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Angels | 46c | 109.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2034backed Orioles | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Angels | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Orioles | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Angels | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Angels | 44c | 50.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked Angels | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Orioles | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Orioles | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Orioles | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Orioles | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Orioles | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Angels | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Angels | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…27f5backed Orioles | 77c | 33.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Angels | 44c | 30.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Orioles | 56c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Orioles | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Orioles | 55c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c4…51a0backed Orioles | 57c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Orioles | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.