MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28da6fbcbf0c7ca37ab1f8a07791a4a0dff42fc0ec20267cb574c21e22ece6e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 35,710$9,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,425.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 23,918$17,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,718.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 8,544$6,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,313.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 7,263$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,923.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 6,429$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 4,876$3,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,877.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 2,739$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 2,611$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,183$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.63 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 18c | 1,693$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 1,167$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.39 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.99 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 999.52$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.31 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 627.54$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 620.81$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 451.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.69 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 333.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 308.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 253.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 18c | 228.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 199.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 153.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 151$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 148.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 129.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 18c | 128$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 116.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 95.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 93.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 90.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 75.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 74.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 74.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 58.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 50.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 43.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 39.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…4cc2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 33.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 31.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…84ccbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 23.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 23.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 15.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…d48ebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -6.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.