MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c58ef45faf5ddbd0d86abe045b46938ceacb5446d5f8b9aadd48fddc981bbdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 119,162$63,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,755.92 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 37,674$17,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,320.11 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 47c | 21,890$10,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,620.59 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 16,577$7,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,951.58 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 47c | 14,840$6,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,865.2 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 11,170$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,920.21 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 9,237$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.99 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 46c | 4,597$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.38 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,742$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,104$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.38 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 47c | 996.6$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.2 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 834$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.02 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 769$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 46c | 641.41$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.36 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…325bbacked Under | 56c | 540.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 39c | 504$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.77 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 453$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 35c | 380.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 329.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 250$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 237.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 54c | 215.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Under | 55c | 204.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 187.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 187.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 52c | 142.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 140.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 55c | 117.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Over | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 99.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 23c | 67.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 62.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 33c | 62.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Under | 54c | 61.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 55c | 60.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 57.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 54.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 59c | 50.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 50c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 53c | 42.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 37.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 26.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…90e0backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 63c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.