Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292436cff5e4cfceea6de38afbf8ea77caee0b6efad1d3164bc6a9062e2d2559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 7,596$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 2,439$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 924.61$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 746.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.94 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 6c | 502.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.94 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 489.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 338.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 335.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 314.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 294.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 246.19$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 48c | 223.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 218.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 6c | 202.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 8c | 168$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 19c | 165.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…b128backed No | 16c | 157.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 128.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 72c | 122.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 40c | 121$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 17c | 118.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 76c | 105.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 93.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 92.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 91.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 89.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 66c | 75.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 42c | 67.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 52.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 51.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 49c | 51.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 32c | 45.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 52c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 67c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.