Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e63346d61144f4279017b1ade98d656c1a2f91adb624b48c6be3f756cf6846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5156…84c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,735$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,027$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 498.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 476.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 13c | 445.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 320$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 196.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 21c | 175.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 63c | 167.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 162.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 14c | 153.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 123.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 106.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 13c | 105.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 15c | 88.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 18c | 87.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 68c | 73.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 56.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 47.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 46.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 66c | 38.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 35.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed No | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.