Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29dd96a0dc74271e92d02262864a76564498a22a418b31199665f57d02c507b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,015$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 789.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 441.13$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 276.39$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 275$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 6c | 228.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 8c | 220.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 27c | 208.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 130.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 117.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 106.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 38c | 105.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 97.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 75c | 87.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 76c | 82.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 78.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 76.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 18c | 75.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 73.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 38c | 68.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 64.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 61.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 57.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 37c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 53.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 45.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 72c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 66c | 43.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 35c | 43.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 43.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 26c | 42.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 42.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 39.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 38.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 33.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 25.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 24.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 22.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.