Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc584704d45a7251b366c12680a1b75af487c5ec067f85267b6f0cce692bb7ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 712$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 3c | 504.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 488.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 51c | 456.27$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 51c | 456.26$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 350$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 315.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 48c | 247.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 196.16$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 50c | 194.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 193.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 27c | 187.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 177.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 176.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 50c | 165.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 159.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 23c | 140.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 20c | 129.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 112.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 109.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 21c | 103.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 91.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 91.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 24c | 89.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 76.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 72.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 70.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 70.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 61.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 47c | 60.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 58.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 54.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 24c | 50.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 26c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 47.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 47.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 44.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 70c | 37.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 57c | 35.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 33.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 73c | 29.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 29.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 28.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 75c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…33bcbacked No | 79c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.