TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,790 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes7c1,621$117 inLost-$117.3243835.8%157 W · 281 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…4c66backed Yes3c789$20 inLost-$20.412420.8%5 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+394.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb3f…5e72backed Yes34c708.23$244 inLost-$243.762010%2 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked No77c547.64$421 inWon+$126.2582537.1%306 W · 519 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes26c464.97$122 inLost-$122.0758926.8%158 W · 431 L-30.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes11c452.64$51 inLost-$50.6792038.5%354 W · 566 L-21.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No73c422.35$308 inWon+$114.2620250%101 W · 101 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f26…e28dbacked No65c306.3$200 inWon+$106.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa066…710bbacked Yes5c295.57$16 inLost-$16.082733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No63c233.7$146 inWon+$87.3621958%127 W · 92 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab0…c21ebacked Yes8c194.44$15 inLost-$159217.4%16 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick22cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes34c150.68$51 inLost-$50.922226.6%59 W · 163 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c125$68 inWon+$57.1313060.8%79 W · 51 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c119.5$22 inLost-$22.217799.6%75 W · 704 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c78.22$17 inLost-$16.8242737.2%159 W · 268 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No61c70$42 inWon+$27.582,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No62c69.99$43 inWon+$26.645957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes37c57.27$21 inLost-$21.312,52442.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c52.63$19 inLost-$18.591,68620.6%347 W · 1,339 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes35c50$18 inLost-$17.56426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-56.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes25c46.73$12 inLost-$11.862,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c30$24 inWon+$6.1214858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No65c16$10 inWon+$5.634554.2%187 W · 158 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.