Fifa International · resolved market
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308beef80426956e0c3a99231283286ce52d6000c7862f3d9cb82a792a6d6d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 53c | 5,921$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.04 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…24d1backed Yes | 24c | 3,817$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +282%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…7f5bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,458$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 31c | 906.19$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.18 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Yes | 49c | 685.64$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.08 | 441 | 30.8%136 W · 305 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 679.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.52 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 19c | 660.05$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.52 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 547.64$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.57 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Yes | 57c | 520.66$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 10c | 478.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.28 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 8c | 466.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.79 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Yes | 61c | 460.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 259 | 42.1%109 W · 150 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 405.88$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.1 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…710bbacked Yes | 7c | 368.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.97 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 7c | 302.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.78 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 22c | 299.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 226.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 225.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 202.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 202.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…9ed2backed Yes | 12c | 200.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 174.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 22c | 168.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 166.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 163.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 158.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 156.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…4c66backed Yes | 9c | 155.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +394.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 155.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 76c | 148$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 78c | 136.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 15c | 131.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 31c | 122.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…ca73backed Yes | 16c | 121.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 34c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 103.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 84.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 158 | 59.5%94 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 82.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 351 | 36.8%129 W · 222 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 77c | 78.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 61.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…aa25backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 58.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 28c | 57.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 54.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 350 | 35.7%125 W · 225 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 47.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 39.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 39.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 32.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 20.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 78c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978b…2addbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Bukayo Saka win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Declan Rice win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Erling Haaland win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Florian Wirtz win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lamine Yamal win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Michael Olise win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Pedri win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Rodri win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Vinícius Jr. win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.