TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof TheMongolz, Lynn Vision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$418,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$475,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88d1…18dabacked TheMongolz73c75,000$54,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,249.8722354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Lynn Vision27c60,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,199.9414050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Lynn Vision27c30,029$8,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,100.5875652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3936…366dbacked TheMongolz74c30,000$22,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8002944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lynn Vision26c25,197$6,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,511.7733043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Lynn Vision26c25,000$6,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,574.9416245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed TheMongolz73c20,000$14,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,35072453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz73c19,000$13,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,06564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Lynn Vision26c18,893$4,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,912.2741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TheMongolz74c15,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz73c14,616$10,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,946.1976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Lynn Vision20c13,838$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.3167041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked Lynn Vision27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7007441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked TheMongolz80c7,015$5,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.1722468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TheMongolz75c5,911$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.8381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Lynn Vision26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3005156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Lynn Vision24c4,657$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.4914955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed TheMongolz74c4,054$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.0548350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Lynn Vision28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.984643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Lynn Vision11c3,928$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…7e93backed Lynn Vision27c3,772$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.563636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Lynn Vision4c3,750$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Lynn Vision26c3,657$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.886841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Lynn Vision22c3,635$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7825052%26 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TheMongolz73c3,500$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Lynn Vision27c3,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.9766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Lynn Vision11c3,189$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.131,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Lynn Vision24c3,150$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.9917045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked Lynn Vision27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c50…89b6backed TheMongolz74c2,892$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.8218061.7%111 W · 69 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed TheMongolz77c2,873$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.7922757.3%130 W · 97 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked TheMongolz73c2,740$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.84957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Lynn Vision20c2,690$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.0110635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Lynn Vision27c2,600$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked TheMongolz78c2,439$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.916947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lynn Vision16c2,370$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.680942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked TheMongolz78c2,036$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.1546165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed TheMongolz73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Lynn Vision26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5208051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Lynn Vision27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed TheMongolz77c1,977$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8749941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Lynn Vision5c1,845$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.251546.7%7 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+64.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TheMongolz73c1,800$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.51,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Lynn Vision22c1,792$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.591747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Lynn Vision27c1,747$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.642,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lynn Vision7c1,733$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.095,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9535…ccdcbacked Lynn Vision9c1,731$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ea…6a44backed Lynn Vision22c1,614$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.681040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked TheMongolz74c1,555$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.395444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Lynn Vision26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Lynn Vision26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Lynn Vision24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Lynn Vision23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Lynn Vision28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9920249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Lynn Vision27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.9916544.8%74 W · 91 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed TheMongolz74c1,439$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.255438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed TheMongolz73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8620958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5020…36fcbacked TheMongolz74c1,344$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.374961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed TheMongolz76c1,328$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.1141847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Lynn Vision27c1,320$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.45,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed TheMongolz76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7952750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TheMongolz77c1,250$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3788746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Lynn Vision9c1,164$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1733949%166 W · 173 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Lynn Vision27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Lynn Vision22c1,100$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2391,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Lynn Vision27c1,077$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3316047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lynn Vision15c1,072$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.054,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2744…7e85backed TheMongolz73c1,063$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.451752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Lynn Vision7c1,019$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.75506%3 W · 47 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-76.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e78…1a6fbacked TheMongolz73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Lynn Vision26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26017853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked TheMongolz73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Lynn Vision28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28033452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f8…a1afbacked Lynn Vision15c999.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Lynn Vision27c999.96$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9925145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed TheMongolz72c958.33$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3319245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz77c953.96$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.361,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked Lynn Vision27c953.67$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.496030%18 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked TheMongolz72c936.11$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1110451.9%54 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Lynn Vision23c930$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5848319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Lynn Vision27c925.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25052636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked TheMongolz74c878.38$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3825261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz78c851.88$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.851,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6013…9826backed TheMongolz74c833.46$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.711863.6%75 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed TheMongolz73c821.92$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9227657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Lynn Vision16c820.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.011,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed TheMongolz73c817.36$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6957641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed TheMongolz77c800$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4516155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Lynn Vision26c800$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21060848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed TheMongolz70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24018056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Lynn Vision25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed Lynn Vision1c750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104122%9 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked TheMongolz73c722.77$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1514971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Lynn Vision17c716.6$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.810454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac4…1594backed Lynn Vision22c710.53$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.16728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked TheMongolz71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2327751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed TheMongolz72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4440048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed TheMongolz74c673.64$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1516761.7%103 W · 64 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked TheMongolz74c670$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.242050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked TheMongolz75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.674546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.