Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x299351c9781efb5e6a73579294869fb5bbe5951fba95e4c125dbd286f968a503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 69c | 662.45$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 558.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.65 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 520.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.04 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 481.5$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 395.49$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 350$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 332.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 31c | 308.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.09 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 308.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 305$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 293.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 277.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 27c | 226.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 217.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 214$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 190.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 162.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 158.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 138.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 106.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 101.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 64c | 91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 82.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed Yes | 35c | 66.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 53.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 25c | 49.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 44.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 42.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 37c | 42.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 39.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 34.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 29.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 26.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 21.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 57c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 66c | 17.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.