Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b8dfd68b502b479ef5d9bfec0f142d565a8ed522212b0fd220eb957efa6445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d61…75cfbacked No | 77c | 2,024$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 28c | 843.45$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 638.1$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 621.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaf…7d43backed Yes | 16c | 528.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 28c | 510$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 506.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 461.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 62c | 365.16$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…04e7backed Yes | 6c | 301.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 6c | 245.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 196.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…d171backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 130.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…cc06backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c1…a35bbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 25?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.