Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680ce8f0f7757beadaa72d07d6d224cf8fd94ce948fad83aeddc5e44c4bb9889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 16c | 7,460$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 58c | 1,840$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.22 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 9c | 1,236$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 3c | 705.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…e34dbacked Yes | 5c | 397.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 13c | 385$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.35 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Yes | 12c | 358.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 64c | 358.33$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 254.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 40c | 237.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 14c | 203.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 75c | 202.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.31 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 29c | 201$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…04e7backed Yes | 12c | 183.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 176.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…a7a0backed No | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 62c | 77.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 25c | 57.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 27c | 50.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 25?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.