Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d4efbb9cd1d16c0f1593172efe46ab2cf53dcf41909f9c108a0520558ef97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 18c | 41,795$7,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,666.27 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 15,407$11,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,082.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 12,777$4,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306.85 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 43c | 11,205$4,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.97 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 7,437$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Over | 44c | 2,680$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 1,778$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.39 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 999$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 78c | 728.02$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 657.5$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.59 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 80c | 625.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 602$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 77c | 454.55$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 17c | 427.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 402.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 379.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 20c | 348.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…7518backed Under | 69c | 302.5$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 242$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 189.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 79c | 151.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 116.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 79c | 109.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 19c | 107.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 66c | 103.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 28c | 69.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Under | 75c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 67c | 38.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 64c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 39c | 37.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 55c | 29.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 58c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: FC Midtjylland O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)HNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.