Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58768ae6e49c433788aeab8c947e074852ccb25c6ef73b7ca5e57211e42efa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 5,251$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.25 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 39c | 3,279$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.79 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Over | 68c | 3,257$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Over | 38c | 2,435$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Over | 38c | 1,695$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.58 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Over | 39c | 1,695$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.61 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 1,436$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.07 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,022$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.56 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 965.15$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.4 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 843.25$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.76 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 75c | 810.79$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.77 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 14c | 794.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 72c | 528.69$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.8 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 48c | 512.55$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.77 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 336.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.78 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 50c | 325.1$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 220.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 183.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 178.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Under | 51c | 177.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 34c | 145.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 52c | 128.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 109.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Under | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 98.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5c…1353backed Over | 70c | 94.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 39c | 92.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 77.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 17c | 71.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 68.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…e8b9backed Under | 57c | 66.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Under | 59c | 66.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 55.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 62c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 60c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: FC Midtjylland O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)HNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.