Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e872f07df570e2ca3895d043d24fb4b6f0a7b8d7a3026c870797af81c090ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 3,822$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.41 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 21c | 666.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 15c | 640$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 13c | 555.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 13c | 555.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 13c | 555.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 416.77$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 388.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 14c | 264.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 15c | 194.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 20c | 188.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 79c | 119.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed Over | 21c | 111.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…0319backed Over | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 100.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -20.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…ed51backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 24c | 77.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 48c | 36.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 371 | 43.7%162 W · 209 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…35e9backed Over | 52c | 36.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Over | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…c418backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 75c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.