Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e16c311b54418f789f20f0e435bd586d11dfa67d4e99f9c7c77f03f3f550aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 6,607$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…27e8backed Over | 77c | 5,818$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 3,102$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.45 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 71c | 2,065$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 1,937$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.11 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 75c | 1,899$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.1 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 23c | 1,657$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.16 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 27c | 1,347$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.63 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 76c | 1,233$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 24c | 862.88$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…f05bbacked Over | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 68c | 649.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 76c | 526.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 23c | 463$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 23c | 430$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 73c | 410.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…a0fdbacked Over | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 18c | 377.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 74c | 356.52$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Over | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 22c | 307.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 78c | 305$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 29c | 299.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…d200backed Over | 76c | 263.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 24c | 254.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 77c | 251.17$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 27c | 216.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 24c | 185$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 77c | 164.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 80c | 147.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…17fcbacked Over | 70c | 101.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 23c | 92.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 20c | 90.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Over | 70c | 90.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 80c | 75.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 71c | 74.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 17c | 69.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 76c | 53.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…46f4backed Over | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Under | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…c418backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…fb98backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…553cbacked Over | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Over | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 76c | 14.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Over | 79c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.