Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f8be9562f19cd0e2de570355d01be729b942b8fe6a288fd3c992088e27b443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 2,564$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.86 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 22c | 1,391$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 34c | 1,177$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 49c | 913.48$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.24 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 890.23$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.85 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed No | 75c | 546.67$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 370.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 347.86$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 77c | 345.56$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes | 22c | 338.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 306$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 19c | 299.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed No | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 71c | 280.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63f…3fa7backed Yes | 46c | 217.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 69c | 214.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 29c | 209.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 195.22$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…9c8bbacked Yes | 28c | 176.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 166.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 62c | 160.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 63c | 158.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 25c | 148.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 36c | 133.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 43c | 119.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 79c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 13c | 96.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 72c | 58.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…0fedbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 55c | 51.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 72c | 48.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 37c | 47.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 47.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 44.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 25c | 44.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 59c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 58c | 28.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a663backed No | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…7158backed No | 53c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.