Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a13f695b124c7ad74fdd6ebcb2dca89db2913e4b7ad7f6961a9c8c41c7d4559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 3c | 758.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed No | 23c | 350.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 305.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.03 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 268.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 267$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 42c | 234.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 18c | 232.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.77 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 204.15$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 75c | 176.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 171.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 27c | 167.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 153.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 146.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 134.11$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 20c | 104.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 103.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 18c | 101.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 24c | 101.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 77c | 90.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 50c | 72.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 72.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 67.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 66.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 79c | 61.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 60.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 39.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 37.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 30.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 36c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 29.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 28.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 77c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 76c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 14.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 75c | 13.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.