NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a84d2f4ef42d63e84017973528ea8e2864687e348e45ae43084affddff8babf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 55c | 22,092$12,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,150.59 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 18,316$8,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,595.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 6,794$3,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,528.06 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 45c | 5,444$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.44 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,885$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…da33backed Under | 45c | 2,647$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 45c | 2,598$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.78 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 2,328$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…b9e9backed Under | 45c | 2,208$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…da9cbacked Under | 45c | 1,573$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 52c | 1,496$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.15 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 1,300$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 49c | 926$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.74 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 893$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 52c | 741.99$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.8 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…a56ebacked Over | 55c | 379.95$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.97 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Over | 54c | 240$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 131.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 126.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Under | 65c | 125$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 60c | 83.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 48c | 78.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 26c | 51.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 37.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 32.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.