NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f2d37d1a5bbdeb7be4e5b6aa5738867e4ae2bf88b3cd023ec9c8fb771d1a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 49c | 4,049$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.89 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 3,289$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 44c | 2,693$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 1,843$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.94 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 957.46$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.54 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 67c | 929$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.54 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 254.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 64c | 230$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 60c | 203.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…2f0bbacked Over | 74c | 189.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 37c | 186.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 37c | 184$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 60c | 178.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…76a0backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Under | 35c | 99.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 42c | 86.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Under | 35c | 83.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 68c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 66.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 64c | 45.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 43.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 41.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.