NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe2d33292ba755363d35a1bde3a8573a54ce15f62874e17971d52f54af7ab81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Magic, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Magic | 41c | 73,000$29,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,929.92 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Magic | 43c | 29,401$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 59c | 26,346$15,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,801.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 58c | 15,823$9,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,609.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets | 60c | 9,462$5,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,818.42 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hornets | 59c | 8,983$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,683.05 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Hornets | 59c | 7,943$4,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.75 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Hornets | 60c | 7,500$4,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,010 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Hornets | 58c | 7,464$4,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.88 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Magic | 42c | 7,464$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.88 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Hornets | 59c | 7,437$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.29 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 58c | 3,039$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 59c | 2,398$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Magic | 41c | 1,676$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.16 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Hornets | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets | 56c | 1,320$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Hornets | 59c | 1,012$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.92 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Hornets | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 59c | 989$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.49 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Hornets | 59c | 941.95$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.2 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Hornets | 59c | 909$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Hornets | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Hornets | 61c | 573.77$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Hornets | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Hornets | 59c | 495.87$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Hornets | 48c | 463.04$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.78 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hornets | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Hornets | 61c | 273.77$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 59c | 203$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Hornets | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Hornets | 59c | 149.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Hornets | 59c | 132$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Hornets | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Magic | 42c | 113.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hornets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Hornets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Hornets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hornets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Hornets | 59c | 89.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Hornets | 59c | 87.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hornets | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Hornets | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Hornets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Hornets | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 59c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Hornets | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hornets | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Hornets | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Hornets | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Magic | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Magic | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Hornets | 59c | 38.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hornets | 59c | 37.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Hornets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Magic | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Hornets | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Hornets | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.