TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,851 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox23c3,493$792 inLost-$791.9812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies75c2,016$1,502 inWon+$514.088,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies79c1,749$1,378 inWon+$371.2211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago White Sox22c624.82$137 inLost-$137.461,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies73c533.52$391 inWon+$142.438,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies55c223.05$122 inWon+$101.118,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox32c219.38$70 inLost-$69.723,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago White Sox25c200$50 inLost-$5063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Philadelphia Phillies70c151.69$106 inWon+$45.5122350.7%113 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox30c146.69$44 inLost-$44.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Philadelphia Phillies66c117.18$77 inWon+$39.8411256.3%63 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Philadelphia Phillies76c52.99$40 inWon+$12.7215143.7%66 W · 85 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox26c40.1$10 inLost-$10.465,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies71c37.2$26 inWon+$10.792,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Chicago White Sox46c28.88$13 inLost-$13.2887352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1b…106cbacked Philadelphia Phillies73c18.51$14 inWon+$58669.8%60 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.