MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead5036ec0500bc6a899eff70ccdc40f057854311d5b4f22ec2636a956ac99f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 26c | 5,613$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 2,035$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 75c | 1,376$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 74c | 756.76$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 550$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 26c | 398.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 76c | 358.26$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 74c | 343.05$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 74c | 228.69$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 19c | 218.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 73c | 132.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 77c | 98.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…188bbacked Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 74c | 83.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 75c | 81.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 78c | 73.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 23c | 55.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 23c | 44.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 41.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Over | 74c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 74c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 78c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.