MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03ab5b6f617ff37659b31f0ccabcd40e4a94ef7efc301fadb759bf93152d9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 1,396$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 858.93$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 54c | 536.35$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 40c | 343.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 333.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 328.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 59c | 316.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 233.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 32c | 206.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 51c | 164.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 45c | 160.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 59c | 150.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 146$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 93.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 59c | 81.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 73.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 58c | 58.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 44c | 56.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 56.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 54.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 53.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 70c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 46c | 46.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 54c | 41.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 52c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 37.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 62c | 32.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 41c | 27.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 67c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.