MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800f160a364f73c0482604ae0e0b62bddb335f47aab0ae635b3c23da36e408de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed Under | 42c | 10,320$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 9,540$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 4,611$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 42c | 917$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 865.69$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 56c | 449.51$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 419.39$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Under | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 246.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 40c | 230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 159$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 40c | 157.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 35c | 154.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 150.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…ec13backed Under | 42c | 121.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 118$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 42c | 102$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 90.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 86.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 82.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 58c | 67.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 43c | 59.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…6d7abacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 41.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 38c | 39.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 56c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Over | 59c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 59c | 22.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 49c | 22.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Over | 70c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.