MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7470f1c0e961932fc358bca8b18ae735818328c9e91cfcf5addb538331a19ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 8,463$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 8,143$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 7,640$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 6,819$4,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 1,043$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 315.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 309.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 307.09$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 293$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 245.62$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 235.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 200.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 166$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 156.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago White Sox | 20c | 148$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 134.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 127.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Chicago White Sox | 19c | 115.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 110.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 101.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 80.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 77.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 32c | 75.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 77c | 51.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago White Sox | 32c | 51.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 49.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…9528backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 46.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 44.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 42.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 35.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 31.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 25.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 22.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…1cb8backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.