Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8d5caf871a040c2b7f01796887b4f5fbd28a7fefb08d6086edc37e8f6c7bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 46c | 3,127$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 2,967$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 2,611$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.67 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 2,058$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.73 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 1,807$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.12 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 1,347$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.21 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 1,144$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.77 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…f6edbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 57cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 20c | 675.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…291fbacked Over | 48c | 674$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 548.4$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.36 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 454.14$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 446$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 69c | 370.17$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…286abacked Over | 48c | 336.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Over | 47c | 308.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 63c | 231.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 54c | 200.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 53c | 178.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.48per pick | 39cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 31c | 98.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 58c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…1883backed Over | 47c | 95.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 47c | 52.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 54c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Under | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 51c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Stoke City FC (-2.5)Swansea City AFC won
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Stoke City FC won
- Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.