MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b163e3d8f1248dc1104bf26e31a2e8a39db162d726a9aca3b82a5eec99afe16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 47c | 12,000$5,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,639.94 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 11,144$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,407.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,352$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 1,615$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 923.39$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 50c | 880$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 797.12$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 769.7$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 50c | 537$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 40c | 506.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 385.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 277.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 50c | 235$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 54c | 213.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 77c | 188.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 50c | 185.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 50c | 178.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 24c | 152.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Over | 52c | 141$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 104.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 94.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 89.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 48c | 79.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 52c | 77.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 49c | 72.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 64.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 49c | 51.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a42…60dbbacked Over | 52c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 40.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Under | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 62c | 35.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 53c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…f73cbacked Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.