Fifa International · resolved market
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7aa56217748fbf39f8aa779f6541097c676dfa5ab66d805fc217ee5618e51e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc087…dbbabacked Yes | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.07 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 74c | 620.52$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.52 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…383abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 374.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.69 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 17c | 310$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Yes | 22c | 286.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.64 | 117 | 17.1%20 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 262.24$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.55 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…3053backed Yes | 19c | 261.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d5…1cbbbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…5ad0backed Yes | 19c | 242.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…5bc1backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…0367backed Yes | 22c | 184.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…e17dbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 25c | 122$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…0d66backed Yes | 18c | 119.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…9d9bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…5349backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 102.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…1c30backed Yes | 18c | 81.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…788abacked Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb0…1991backed Yes | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 18c | 56.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 256 | 39.1%100 W · 156 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…b726backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 24.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsthis page
- Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goalsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goalsNo won
- Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsYes won
- Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shotsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 3+ shotsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsYes won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ shotsYes won
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ shotsYes won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ shotsNo won
- Michael Olise: 5+ shotsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shotsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shotsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ goalsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 3+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.