Movies · resolved market
Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b9d2441d95f7fd64f7a2154fcd864951805477ae7865ad3dcb516dc2e6c7948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked No | 59c | 2,257$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed Yes | 39c | 1,745$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 7c | 761.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 74c | 673.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.84 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…2ffebacked Yes | 43c | 548.43$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 39c | 196.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 7c | 187.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 168$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 157.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…57e2backed Yes | 51c | 153.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 58c | 138.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 38c | 124.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 53c | 124.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 50c | 121.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 120.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 45c | 100.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 49c | 89.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 76.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 60.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 80c | 48.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed No | 37c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 56c | 31.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 53c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 68c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.