Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b9f73c3cfd0511a71225df4f3d14bdd7ad2aedc6986e397a9c735f649b58da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 1,004$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 56c | 875.56$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.56 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 71c | 364.95$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 72c | 281.02$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 203.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 63c | 185.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 177.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 169.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 70c | 162.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 156.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 149$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 146.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 137$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 52c | 134.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 113.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 104.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 97.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 94.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 93.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 87.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 63.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 62.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 59.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 55.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 55.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 39c | 55.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed No | 46c | 51.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 49.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 26c | 49.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 45.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 33c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 41.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 38.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 37.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 49c | 34.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 33.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 33.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 44c | 29.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 64c | 28.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 53c | 27.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 54c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 59c | 26.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 49c | 25.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 71c | 22.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…30b9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…c040backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 59c | 19.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…f531backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.