TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,022 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles26c729.52$188 inLost-$187.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays72c420$303 inWon+$117.218,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays71c261.43$185 inWon+$76.256,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles27c218.36$59 inLost-$59.463,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed Toronto Blue Jays74c204$150 inWon+$546066.7%40 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles22c189.53$42 inLost-$41.752,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Baltimore Orioles27c144.44$39 inLost-$393821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles28c142.86$40 inLost-$4079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles15c142.03$22 inLost-$21.8999624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays78c120.71$94 inWon+$26.561,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb518…3403backed Toronto Blue Jays75c82.76$62 inWon+$20.553351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays77c69.78$54 inWon+$16.052,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Toronto Blue Jays78c67.05$52 inWon+$14.7532450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles27c65.28$18 inLost-$17.531,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays76c53.55$41 inWon+$12.978,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays75c47.57$36 inWon+$11.781,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays76c39.24$30 inWon+$9.322,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays73c34.95$26 inWon+$9.3372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Toronto Blue Jays72c27.78$20 inWon+$7.7835240.3%142 W · 210 L-23.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays72c19.99$14 inWon+$5.61,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Toronto Blue Jays72c19$14 inWon+$5.3249158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Toronto Blue Jays77c16.92$13 inWon+$3.9666056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Toronto Blue Jays75c16$12 inWon+$3.979752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.