MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f2c056e58a944f6e029d9c408bb0ce578573d3ca0eca1643f9bfe3bfc36de7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 1,293$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 999.74$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 13c | 882.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 781.19$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 590.51$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 439$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 364.82$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 358.9$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 349.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 239.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 202.08$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 186.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 7c | 165.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 165$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 124.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 104.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 89.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 81.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…41a6backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 73.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 73.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 55.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 42.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 42.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 39.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 36.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 33.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 29.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 28.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.