MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f66f6710b5beec8868984791b7c17ea5c4fe78eb3c79624e33e51447f2e12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 80c | 6,678$5,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.57 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 4,940$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 4,589$2,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 3,693$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,533$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 964$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 22c | 906.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 578.95$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.95 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 20c | 573.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 399$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Over | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 298.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…f824backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 66c | 227.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 201.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 39c | 190$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 180.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 20c | 174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 172$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 70c | 146.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 70c | 114$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 21c | 85.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 70c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 69c | 75.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Under | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 71c | 31.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…9cd9backed Under | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…7749backed Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…525fbacked Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.