MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58551814773fbb081b64412c14074c44752045d1977f992475b04e179ddee5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 26c | 2,866$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.58 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 78c | 1,969$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.65 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 731.58$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.06 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Over | 63c | 558.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 421$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 24c | 408.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 397.17$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 373.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 373.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Over | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 292.49$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ec…0959backed Under | 67c | 283.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 22c | 240$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 22c | 210$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 205.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Over | 66c | 183.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Over | 67c | 167.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 44c | 163.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 79c | 140.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 137.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 40c | 110.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…7525backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 78.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 23c | 65.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 65.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 79c | 59.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 78c | 57.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Over | 75c | 55.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…9d98backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 28c | 49.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 22c | 49.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 23c | 47.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 45.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 42.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 39.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 78c | 38.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 78c | 38.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 78c | 31.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Over | 72c | 30.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…eb4cbacked Under | 44c | 28.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 79c | 17.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.